[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 26 09:43:01 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. A coronal hole
positioned in the western solar hemisphere became geoeffective
after 25/1000UT.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1038UT
on 25 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 18 22244443
Darwin 14 21143433
Townsville 16 22244433
Learmonth 24 21154553
Camden 15 11144433
Canberra 16 22134443
Hobart 16 21234443
Casey(Ant) 14 23333333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 20 active
27 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: A coronal hole wind stream onset occurred after 10UT.
Geomagnetic conditions prior to the onset were quiet, becoming
active at all latitudes after onset. Minor to major storm periods
were observed at high latitudes. Solar wind speed is around 700
km/s at the time of report issue. The Bz component of the IMF
showed moderate fluctuations of +/- 15 nT for a few hours after
onset, then settled to near neutral values. Expect active conditions
for the next two days, with storm periods possible mainly at
high latitudes. Activity should decline during day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbances in HF conditions at high latitudes
next two days in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values
28 Oct -5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Widespread depressions observed around local dawn, especially
Equatorial/N Aus regions, recovering later in the day. Variable
depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions, mainly local day.
Disturbances possible S Aus/Antarctic regions next two days in
association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 47600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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