[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 19 09:49:54 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds increased over the past 24 hours from
approximately 320 to 550 km/s due to a recurrent coronal hole
solar wind stream. Isolated periods of southward IMF to approximately
-10nT were also observed. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain
elevated for the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 22242233
Darwin 9 22232223
Townsville 11 22242233
Learmonth 12 22342233
Camden 10 22242123
Canberra 14 22153133
Hobart 13 12252233
Casey(Ant) 14 3--42233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of isolated active periods.
20 Oct 8 Quiet to unsettled
21 Oct 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: A coronal hole solar wind stream impacted the Earth
during the past 24 hours resulting in an isolated active period
for 09-12UT for the Australian region. Minor storm levels were
observed at some high latitude stations for this interval. Mostly
quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the next 24-48 hours
with the small chance of isolated active levels during 19 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
20 Oct 0 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Oct 0 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 18 October
and is current for interval 19 October only. Significant depressions
were observed at times during the past 24 hours primarily for
Australian/Equatorial regions. Significant depressions are again
expected at times for Australian/Equatorial regions, otherwise
mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 30300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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