[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 18 09:43:54 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds are expected to increase over the
next 24 hours due to a recurrent coronal hole solar wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 22110111
Darwin 3 21110112
Townsville 4 22111121
Learmonth 2 22000011
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 1 11000001
Hobart 2 11110101
Casey(Ant) 6 33211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 12 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible.
19 Oct 12 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible.
20 Oct 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The effects of a high speed solar wind stream from a
recurrent coronal hole are expected to result in slightly elevated
geomagnetic activity for 18-19 October with isolated active periods
possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct -10 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
19 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
20 Oct 0 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 17 October
and is current for interval 18 October only. Significant depressions
were observed at times during the past 24 hours primarily for
northern Australian/Equatorial regions. Significant depressions
are again expected at times for northern Australian/Equatorial
regions, otherwise mostly normal conditions are expected for
the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 41200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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