[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 17 09:47:34 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN  ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Oct             18 Oct             19 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds are expected to increase over the 
next couple of days due to a recurrent coronal hole solar wind 
stream. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12112211
      Darwin               4   21112211
      Townsville           6   22212221
      Learmonth            4   11112211
      Camden               3   11112201
      Canberra             3   02112200
      Hobart               4   11112211
      Casey(Ant)           8   23322211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1000 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Oct    12    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods 
                possible. 
18 Oct    12    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods 
                possible. 
19 Oct     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The effects of a high speed solar wind stream from a 
recurrent coronal hole are expected to result in slightly elevated 
geomagnetic activity for 17-18 October with isolated active periods 
possible. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal-poor    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Oct    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Oct    -5    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Oct     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
19 Oct     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Significant depressions were observed at times during 
the past 24 hours primarily for northern Australian/Equatorial 
regions. Significant depressions are again expected at times 
for northern Australian/Equatorial regions, otherwise mostly 
normal conditions are expected for the next few days. Spread-F 
and Sporadic-E conditions were observed at times. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 305 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    34400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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