[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 20 09:48:09 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Oct             21 Oct             22 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds remained elevated over the past 24 
hours, ranging from approximately 560 to 680 km/s due to a recurrent 
coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 19 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   32235332
      Darwin              14   32235222
      Townsville          15   22235332
      Learmonth           16   32235332
      Camden              13   22225232
      Canberra            15   23225332
      Hobart              14   23225322
      Casey(Ant)          17   4--43233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Camden              64   (Active)
      Canberra            71   (Active)
      Hobart              84   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   1233 2133     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Oct     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: An isolated minor storm was observed 12-15UT at all 
Australian region stations as the result of a coronal hole solar 
wind stream. Storm levels were observed at high latitude stations 
during the past 24 hours. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are 
expected for the the Australian region for the next 24-48 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Oct    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Oct   -10    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
21 Oct    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
22 Oct    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 20 October only. Significant depressions 
were observed at times during the past 24 hours primarily for 
Australian/Equatorial regions. Significant depressions are again 
expected at times for Australian/Equatorial regions for 20 October, 
otherwise mostly normal conditions are expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    96800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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