[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 3 09:43:42 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is presently at 440 km/s. Late in the
UT day on 03 October the solar wind is expected to increase again
to approximately 550 km/s as it crosses a solar sector boundry.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21211112
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 3 11210012
Camden 3 21110012
Canberra 3 21120012
Hobart 4 11211112
Casey(Ant) 8 33321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2232 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 12 Unsettled
04 Oct 12 Unsettled
05 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect mostly unsettled conditions on the 03-04 October
with isolated active levels due to a high speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15 % during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night
when ionogram trace visible.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct -10 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
04 Oct -10 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were were most likely depressed due to
low ionisation of the ionosphere. Sporadic E noted at mid to
low latitudes around the local evening hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 78500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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