[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Oct             05 Oct             06 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar wind speed is presently at 550 km/s and is expected 
to steadily decline over the next several days to just under 
400 km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-6nT over the last 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22324222
      Darwin               8   22223222
      Townsville          12   22334223
      Learmonth           10   22224322
      Camden               9   22224222
      Canberra            12   32334222
      Hobart               9   22224222
      Casey(Ant)          15   34433222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Camden              10   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   2221 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Oct    12    Unsettled 
05 Oct     6    Quiet 
06 Oct     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were slightly degraded due to geomagnetic 
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Oct   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 10% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15%. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night
      when trace visible on ionogram.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Oct   -10    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
05 Oct     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Oct     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions were were most likely depressed due to 
low ionisation of the ionosphere. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+09   (very high fluence)  

Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    54400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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