[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 2 09:51:08 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               67/0

COMMENT: Solar wind speed has declined to 460 km/s and is expected 
to remain steady at approximately 400 km/s. Late in the UT day 
on 03 October the solar wind is expected to increase again due 
to a geoeffective coronal hole, reaching approximately 550 km/s. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-2nT over the last 24 hours. AR 971 
spot group appears stable and is not expected to produce any 
significant flares. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232212
      Darwin               6   21132212
      Townsville           9   22233222
      Learmonth            7   21232212
      Camden               5   12232101
      Canberra             6   12232202
      Hobart               6   12232211
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-332213
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   3433 2122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Oct    12    Unsettled 
04 Oct    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect mostly unsettled conditions on the 03 October 
with isolated active levels due to a high speed solar wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Oct    -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night
      when trace is present.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
03 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Oct     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: HF conditions were depressed due to geomagnetic activity 
induced by a coronal hole. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 630 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   139000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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