[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 1 09:42:41 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed began to decline over the last 24 hours from
650km/s at 0000UT to be 550km/s at the time of this report. Solar
wind speed is expected to decrease over the next 2 days after
which a possible increase could be seen on 03Oct due to a small
coronal hole being in geoeffective position. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-3nT over the whole UT day. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Active.
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 23332222
Darwin 9 23322222
Townsville 10 23332231
Learmonth 11 33332222
Camden 9 23332121
Canberra 10 23332222
Hobart 11 23432122
Casey(Ant) 13 34332223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 26 5554 3243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 12 Unsettled
02 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Mostly Unsettled conditions are expected for
the next 2 days as the solar wind speed begins to decline. Chance
of isolated Active periods with an expected rise in solar wind
speed on 03 Oct due to a small coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal-fair Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
02 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
03 Oct Normal-fair Normal Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions observed for mid to low latitudes,
with some depressed periods. High latitudes experienced disturbed
conditions. Similar conditions expected for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
02 Oct 5 near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for Equatorial/Northern AUS
regions during local night with otherwise normal HF conditions.
Mostly normal conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal conditions expected
for all regions with further disturbances for the Antarctic over
the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 632 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 219000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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