[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 28 12:20:46 EST 2007
SUBJ: UPDATED IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/0130Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: No significant regions on the visible solar disk. The
present coronal hole solar wind stream appears to be in gradual
decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22212112
Darwin 4 22112111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 22212121
Camden 4 12212111
Canberra - --------
Hobart 3 12211001
Casey(Ant) 12 34-22223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3322 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 7 Quiet
29 Nov 6 Quiet
30 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline from 480km/s to
440km/s over the UT day. Geomagnetic conditions at high latitudes
were unsettled to active, tending to unsettled later in the UT
day. Conditions at low to mid latitudes were quiet to unsettled.
Expect mostly quiet conditions next three days. Isolated active
to minor storm periods possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
29 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
30 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Fair to Normal conditions expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov -34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
29 Nov -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
30 Nov -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable and sometimes significant depressions possible
for Equatorial/Northern Aus regions. Isolated degradations possible
for Southern Aus/Antarctic regions over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 589 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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