[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 29 10:43:19 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Nov             30 Nov             01 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
These conditions are expected to continue for the next 3 days, 
as there is no significant regions on the visible solar disk. 
Solar wind velocity currently ~410km/s. Bz fluctuated between 
+/-3nT. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21222312
      Darwin               5   21121311
      Townsville           8   22222322
      Learmonth            7   11112412
      Camden               4   11111301
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart               5   11212311
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1211 1012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Nov     6    Quiet 
30 Nov     6    Quiet 
01 Dec     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Solar wind speed is currently ~410km/s. Bz fluctuated 
between +/-3nT over the UT day, with a sustained southward period 
of 3nT between 1300UT and 1800UT of which Unsettled conditions 
where observed for low to mid latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions 
at high latitudes were Unsettled to Active. Mostly quiet conditions 
expected for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
30 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
01 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Fair to Normal conditions expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Nov   -31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Nov   -30    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
30 Nov   -30    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
01 Dec   -25    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 28 November 
and is current for interval 28-30 November. Very low solar activity 
has been a key factor of the depressed conditions and generally 
low ionospheric support observed over the last few days. Variable 
and sometimes sustained depressed periods expected for
Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions for the next
3 days. Depressed MUFs and isolated disturbed periods for 
Antarctic regions over this forecast period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 469 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    59100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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