[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 27 10:26:25 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: No significant regions on the visible solar disk. The
present coronal hole solar wind stream appears to be in gradual
decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22232122
Darwin 5 21122112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 21232122
Camden 7 22232112
Canberra - --------
Hobart 7 22232112
Casey(Ant) 9 3--32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 3332 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 7 Quiet
28 Nov 5 Quiet
29 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined steadily from 620 to 500 km/s
over the UT day. Geomagnetic conditions at high latitudes were
unsettled to active, tending to unsettled later in the UT day.
Conditions at low to mid latitudes were quiet to unsettled. Expect
mostly quiet conditions next three days. Chance of unsettled
periods at low to mid latitudes day one. Isolated active to minor
storm periods possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Poor-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable depressions possible mainly at low latitudes
due to weak ionisation. Degradations possible at high latitudes
day one.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov -32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov -25 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Nov -20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
29 Nov -20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable and sometimes significant depressions possible
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Isolated degradations possible S
Aus/Antarctic regions mainly day one.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 605 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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