[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 26 10:25:42 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low 
levels today as well. The currrently going on coronal 
hole effect seems to be declining. The solar wind speed 
gradually decreased from 640 km/s to 580 km/s during the 
UT day today and the north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) also stayed close 
to the normal value showing minor fluctuations (upto +/-4nT) 
almost the whole day today. The effect of this coronal hole 
is expected to keep the solar wind stream strengthened on 
26 November and then gradually decline. Solar activity is 
expected to remain at very low levels for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22332322
      Darwin               8   22232222
      Townsville          10   22332322
      Learmonth           13   32333332
      Camden               8   22232222
      Canberra             8   2231----
      Hobart               9   22332222
      Casey(Ant)          15   4---3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            56   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              54   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   3232 2432     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Nov     7    Quiet 
28 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: The effect of the coroanl hole, that is currently 
in geoeffective position, may keep the geomagnetic activity 
slightly enhanced upto unsettled levels on 26 November. The 
geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually decline 
to quiet levels on the following days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
27 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and 
depressions in MUFs may be possible on 26 November especially 
at mid and high latitude locations due to weak ionisation 
in the ionosphere and some left over effect of a coronal hole. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Nov   -39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 10 to 30% with periods of degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov   -38    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
27 Nov   -35    5 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
28 Nov   -32    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and 
depressions in MUFs may be expected across Aus/NZ regions 
on 26 November. Some improvements in conditions may be 
possible after that. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 581 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    80600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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