[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 25 10:22:56 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low 
levels today as well. The currrently going on coronal hole 
effect is still going strong. The solar wind speed 
increased from 470 km/s to 650 km/s between 0700UT and 
2100UT today and the north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) also showed minor to mild (upto +/-5nT) 
fluctuations during this period today. The effect of this 
coronal hole is expected to keep the solar wind stream 
strengthened on 25 November and then gradually decline. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for 
the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22222332
      Darwin               7   21222322
      Townsville           9   22222332
      Learmonth           11   22223432
      Camden               8   21222331
      Canberra             9   22222332
      Hobart               7   11222331
      Casey(Ant)          16   3-423342
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3332 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled 
26 Nov     8    Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible. 
27 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: The effect of the coroanl hole, that is currently 
in geoeffective position, may keep the geomagnetic activity 
enhanced to unsettled levels on 25 November. The geomagnetic 
activity is then expected to gradually decline to 
quiet levels on the following days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Poor-normal    Poor-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair     
26 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Minor to significant degradations in HF conditions 
and depressions in MUFs may be possible on 25 and possibly 
26 November especially at mid and high latitude locations 
due to weak ionisation in the ionosphere and some left over 
effect of a coronal hole. Periods of minor to mild depressions 
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may also be observed 
on low latitudes during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Nov   -44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 10 to 40% with periods of degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov   -42    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
26 Nov   -38    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
27 Nov   -35    5 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 
23 November and is current for interval 24-25 November. 
Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and depressions 
in MUFs may be expected across Aus/NZ regions on 25 and possibly 
26 November. Some improvements in conditions may be possible 
after that. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 619 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    91200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list