[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 24 10:20:33 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar disk remains spotless and solar activity
continued to remain at very low levels today as well. The
currrently going on coronal hole effect seems to be weakening
now as the solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from
600 km/s to 540 km/s during the UT day today and the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) also seems to have settled close to the normal value.
The effect of this coronal hole is expected to further weaken
over the next two days. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet to active.
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 32323122
Darwin 7 22223112
Townsville 9 23223222
Learmonth 9 32323122
Camden 10 42322122
Canberra 8 22323212
Hobart 6 22322111
Casey(Ant) 15 4-433222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 13 1321 2444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Nov 7 Quiet
26 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The effect of the coronal hole, that is currently
in geoeffective position, seems to be weakening now. The
geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet to
unsettled levels on 24 November and then mostly at quiet
levels on 25 and 26 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
25 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions may show minor to significant
degradations on 24 and at times on 25 November especially
at mid and high latitude locations due to weak ionisation
in the ionosphere and some left over effect of a coronal
hole. Periods of minor to moderate depressions MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions may also be observed on low
latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov -44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 10 to 40 % with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov -42 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
25 Nov -38 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
26 Nov -35 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on
23 November and is current for interval 24-25 November.
Minor to significant degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be expected across Aus/NZ regions
for the next two days. Some improvements in conditions
may be possible on 26 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 518 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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