[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 23 10:27:19 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Nov             24 Nov             25 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: The solar disk remains spotless and solar activity 
continued to remain at very low levels today as well. As 
anticipated earlier, the solar wind stream is still going 
strong due to the effect of the coronal hole. The effect of 
this coronal hole is expected to keep the solar wind stream 
strong for one to two more days. Solar wind speed showed a 
gradual decrease from 570 km/s to 500 km/s during the first 
half of the UT day today and then increased to 600 km/s by 
2300UT. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) stayed close to the normal value during 
the first half of the UT day and then showed minor to mild 
(upto +/-5nT) fluctuations for the rest of the day. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the 
next few days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   22232443
      Darwin              11   22222433
      Townsville          14   22232443
      Learmonth           20   22233553
      Camden              15   33----33
      Canberra            14   02232452
      Hobart              11   02222442
      Casey(Ant)          17   33432343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              55   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   3444 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Nov    12    Mostly unsettled, active periods possible. 
24 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled 
25 Nov     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Due to the shape of the coronal hole that is 
currently in geoeffective position, the solar wind stream 
has got strengthened again. The geomagnetic activity is 
expected to stay mostly at unsettled levels with the possibility 
of active periods on 23 November. Activity level is then 
expected to decline to mostly unsettled on 24 and quiet levels 
on 25 November. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Poor-fair      Poor-fair      Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Fair           Fair           Poor-fair     
24 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions may show minor to significant 
degradations on 23 and at times on 24 November especially 
at mid and high latitude locations. Periods of minor to 
significant depressions may be observed on mid and high 
latitude locations with some possibility of degrdations 
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs on low latitudes 
during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Nov   -50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20 to 30% over the UT day with periods of
      degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Nov   -50    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values 
24 Nov   -45    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
25 Nov   -40    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Widespread depressions in MUFs continued across 
the Australian/ NZ/SW-Pacific region due to lack of solar 
ionisation. Minor to significant degradations in HF 
conditions and depressions in MUFs may be expected across 
Aus/NZ regions for the next two days. Some improvements 
in conditions may be possible on 25 November as the currently 
going on coronal hole effect is expected to be over by then. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 648 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   192000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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