[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 19 10:09:30 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Nov             20 Nov             21 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low. The only numbered active 
region on the disk (AR974) was quiet over the period. Solar activity 
is expected to remain very low. The solar wind speed is now at 
nominal levels and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) relatively 
stable. A recurrent coronal hole should rotate into geoeffective 
position on 21 Nov increasing solar wind speed and IMF fluctuations. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22111212
      Darwin               4   21111212
      Townsville           5   22111222
      Learmonth            2   11001202
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             2   21100201
      Hobart               3   12101201
      Casey(Ant)           9   33-32211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   3220 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Nov     3    Quiet 
20 Nov     3    Quiet 
21 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally Quiet over the UT 
day (18 Nov). Expect Quiet geomagnetic conditions next 2 days 
(19-20 Nov). A recurrent coronal hole wind stream will likely 
raise geomagnetic activity levels 21 Nov to generally Unsettled 
with isolated Active periods. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Nov   -39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 35% over the UT day. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day. 

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Nov   -30    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
20 Nov   -30    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
21 Nov   -15    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Widespread depressions in MUFs continue across Australian/ 
NZ/SW-Pacific region due to lack of solar ionisation. Particularly 
severe depressions of up to 45% were again observed at some equatorial
stations. Expect these conditions to continue next two days. 
An easing of depressions possible day three (21 Nov) although 
generally low MUFs are expected until a pick-up in solar ionisation. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 481 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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