[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 20 10:35:42 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Nov             21 Nov             22 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low 
levels. The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind speed 
gradually decreased from 400 km/s to 360 km/s by mid day 
today and then showed a gradual rise to 440 km/s by around 
23 UT. This increase in the solar wind speed seems to have 
been happening due to the effect of a coronal hole that is 
taking geoeffective position. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained very stable 
and close to the normal value until around 1700UT. Bz has 
now started to show minor to mild (upto around +/-5nT) 
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value. The effect 
of this coronal hole is expected to keep the solar wind 
stream strengthened for the next three days. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at very low levels during this period. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 
1715UT on 19 Nov. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22211124
      Darwin               5   21111123
      Townsville           9   22211234
      Learmonth            9   11101135
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             3   11100023
      Hobart               4   11110123
      Casey(Ant)          10   33321123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1200 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Nov    12    Unsettled 
21 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
22 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Due to the effect of a coronal hole the geomagnetic 
activity is expected to rise to unsettled levels on 20 
November and unsettled to active levels on 21 and 22 November. 
Isolated minor storm periods may be possible at high latitudes 
on 21 and 22 November. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
21 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor     
22 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Due to weakend ionosphere and expected rise in 
gemagnetic activity levels from 20 to 22 November, HF 
conditions may deteriorate during this period. Mild to 
moderate degradations in HF conditions and depressions 
in MUFs are possible at low and mid latitudes and mild 
to significant degradations and depressions possible 
at high latitude circuits for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Nov   -43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with 
      periods of depressions and degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Nov   -35    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
21 Nov   -40    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values 
22 Nov   -40    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 18 
November and is current for interval 19-20 November. Widespread 
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions continue 
across Australian/ NZ/SW-Pacific region due to lack of solar 
ionisation. An anticipated rise in the geomagnetic activity 
levels from 20 to 22 November is expected to further 
contribute to the deterioration of HF conditions. Mild to 
significant degradations in HF conditions and depressions in 
MUFs may be observed across Aus/NZ regions for the next 
three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    71100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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