[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 18 10:06:09 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Nov             19 Nov             20 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Newly-formed spot region 974 (N12W18) produced a minor 
flare in the period and was reclassified a DAO beta-gamma spot 
group. There are no other spot regions on the disk and solar 
activity is expected to remain very low. The solar wind speed 
declined further to 400km/s. Some sustained periods of southwards 
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) early in the UT day likely 
enhanced merging with the geomagnetic field at high latitudes. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22322222
      Darwin               6   22212222
      Townsville           8   22322222
      Learmonth            7   22322221
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             6   21322111
      Hobart               7   22322211
      Casey(Ant)          13   4-432222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1012 2113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Nov     4    Quiet 
19 Nov     3    Quiet 
20 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally Quiet to Unsettled 
over the UT day (17 Nov). Periods of Active to Minor Storm conditions 
were observed at high latitudes early in the UT day as a result 
of periods of sustained southwards IMF and enhanced magnetic 
field merging. Expect generally Quiet geomagnetic conditions 
next 3 days (18-20 Nov). 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Nov   -22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day. 

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Nov   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
19 Nov   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
20 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 15 November 
and is current for interval 16-18 November. Widespread depressions 
in MUFs continue across Australian/ NZ/SW-Pacific region due 
to lack of solar ionisation. Particularly severe depressions 
of up to 45% were again observed at some equatorial stations 
overnight. Expect regional ionosphere to remain generally depressed 
for at least next two days with continuing large fluctuations 
in MUFs at equatorial and N.Aus locations. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 557 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   179000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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