[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Nov             12 Nov             13 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: The solar wind has ranged from 390 to 460 km/s over 
the last 24 hours and is presently 400 km/s. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated between +/-5 
nT. The solar disk is spotless. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222111
      Darwin               5   22212112
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            5   22222201
      Camden               5   22222101
      Canberra             4   21222110
      Hobart               4   22222100
      Casey(Ant)          12   4-432211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Nov     4    Quiet 
12 Nov     4    Quiet 
13 Nov     4    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Nov    -18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 10% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
12 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
13 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: General depressions in MUFs still observed across
Australian/NZ region due to lack of solar ionising EUV. 
Sonde coverage across PNG and Pacific is out but MUFs assumed 
similarly affected. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    72600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"