[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 12 10:33:38 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Nov             13 Nov             14 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3
COMMENT: Solar wind was ~400 km/s for most of the UT day and 
has declined to ~370 km/sec in the last 6 hours. Solar wind speed 
is expected to increase at Earth on 13 Nov as a coronal hole 
rotates into geoeffective position. IMF Bz fluctuated north /south 
with no sustained southwards turnings of substantial magnitude, 
but a northward excursion occurred 13-19UT. The solar disk remains 
spotless. Nil X-ray events. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111111
      Darwin               4   21112112
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            4   11122012
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             3   12111011
      Hobart               2   12111001
      Casey(Ant)           7   3-321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1012 1100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Nov     4    Quiet 
13 Nov     7    Quiet 
14 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field generally quiet. No substantial IMF 
Bz southwards to disturb polar latitudes with reconnection. Coronal 
hole high speed solar wind stream (HSSWS) expected to take effect 
13 Nov. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
13 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor   
14 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor   
COMMENT: MUFs remain depressed compared with monthly average, 
particularly in the southern hemisphere. Expect to be similarly 
low for at least 2 days with geomagnetic activity from impending 
coronal hole perhaps slightly elevating MUFs around 14 Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Nov   -26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values to 15-25% depressed. 
13 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values to 15-25% depressed. 
14 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed. 
COMMENT: General and greater than expected depressions in MUFs 
still observed across Australian/NZ/SW-Pacific region due to 
lack of solar ionisation. SW Pacific region particularly affected. 
PNG sonde coverage is out but MUFs assumed similarly affected. 
Expect to remain heavily depressed for next two days at least. 
Onset of coronal hole elevated solar wind speed expected 13 Nov 
should energise geomagnetic field and the effect on such a weak 
ionosphere may be to raise ionisation and MUFs around 14 Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 428 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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