[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Nov             11 Nov             12 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind has steadily increased from 340 to 400 km/s 
over the last 24 hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field has fluctuated between +/-5 nT. The solar disk 
is spotless. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21122212
      Darwin               5   22111212
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   11122212
      Camden               4   -1121202
      Canberra             5   21112212
      Hobart               5   21121212
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-332213
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0210 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Nov     5    Quiet 
11 Nov     2    Quiet 
12 Nov     2    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Nov    -20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day. 
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
11 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
12 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for interval 8-10 November. General depressions 
in MUFs still observed across Australian/NZ region due to lack 
of solar ionising EUV. Sonde coverage across PNG and Pacific 
is out but MUFs assumed similarly affected. Spread F again widely 
observed. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 285 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    12000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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