[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 27 08:56:36 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 May             28 May             29 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed was elevated throughout the UT day at around 
650 km/s due to the continued influence of an equatorial coronal 
hole region. Bz, the north/south component of the IMF, fluctuated 
between +/- 5 nT with no periods of sustained southward values. 
Solar wind speed is not expected to increase further and should 
decline to normal levels over the next few days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Active 

Estimated Indices 26 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   33344321
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville          16   33344322
      Learmonth           21   33355322
      Camden              11   23343211
      Canberra            13   23344211
      Hobart              11   23343211
      Casey(Ant)          12   33333321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              41   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            48   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              87   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             16   2443 3342     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 May    16    Unsettled to active 
28 May    12    Unsettled 
29 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was at Active levels with Minor 
Storm periods at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity was in 
response to the elevated solar wind speed throughout the UT day. 
The geomagnetic field is expected to return to Quiet levels over 
the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Fair          
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were slightly below predicted monthly 
values throughout the UT day. Cases of strong sporadic E were 
observed just after local sunset at low latitudes. At mid to 
high and high latitudes the F-layer was weak during the long 
night time hours offering poor ionospheric support. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 May     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 May     5    Near predicted monthly values. Weak F-layer support 
                in polar regions. 
28 May     9    Near predicted monthly values 
29 May    12    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were slightly below predicted monthly 
values throughout the UT day. Cases of strong sporadic E were 
observed just after local sunset across equatorial PNG/pacific 
regions. In Southern Australian and Antartic polar regions the 
F-layer was weak during the long night time hours offering poor 
ionospheric support. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 661 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   181000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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