[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 26 09:11:43 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed was elevated throughout the UT day due to the
influence of an equatorial coronal hole region. Wind speed has
declined over the last 6 hours from 650 km/s to 620 km/s and
is expected to continue to decline to normal levels over the
next 48 hours. Bz, the north/south component of the IMF fluctuated
between +/- 5 nT with no periods of sustained southward values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Active
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 13 23333332
Darwin 9 2323222-
Townsville 13 23333332
Learmonth 16 23344332
Camden 12 13333332
Canberra 14 13343332
Hobart 13 12343332
Casey(Ant) 15 34333--2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Hobart 106 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 28 6542 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 16 Unsettled to active
27 May 12 Unsettled
28 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 23 May and
is current for interval 24-26 May. The geomagnetic field was
at Active levels with Minor Storm periods at high latitudes.
Geomagnetic activity was in response to the elevated solar wind
speed throughout the UT day. The geomagnetic field is expected
to return to Quiet levels over the next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Fair
27 May Normal Normal Fair
28 May Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were slightly below predicted monthly
values for the first half of the UT day. At high latitudes the
F-layer was very weak during the long night time hours offering
little or no ionospheric support.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 7 Near predicted monthly values. Weak F-layer support
in polar regions.
27 May 9 Near predicted monthly values. Weak F-layer support
in polar regions.
28 May 9 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were slightly below predicted monthly
values for the first half of the UT day. In Antarctic polar regions
the F-layer was very weak during the long night time hours offering
little or no ionospheric support.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 597 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 219000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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