[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 28 10:32:47 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed was elevated throughout the UT day, declining
from 650 km/s to around 600 km/s at the time of this report (23:30
UT). Elevated wind speeds are due to the continued influence
of an equatorial coronal hole region. Bz, the north/south component
of the IMF, fluctuated between +/- 4 nT with no periods of sustained
southward values. Solar wind speed is expected to decline to
normal levels over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 12 23342322
Darwin - --------
Townsville 12 23342322
Learmonth 14 33343322
Camden 10 22342311
Canberra 13 22352321
Hobart 14 23352311
Casey(Ant) 14 33332333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin NA
Townsville 11 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 64 (Active)
Canberra 73 (Active)
Hobart 128 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 16 4433 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 12 Unsettled
29 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was at Quiet to Active levels
with Minor Storm periods at high latitudes. An isolated Active
period was observed at all latitudes between 9 and 12 UT. Geomagnetic
activity was in response to the elevated solar wind speed throughout
the UT day. The geomagnetic field is expected to return to Quiet
levels over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were close to predicted monthly values
throughout the UT day. Cases of strong sporadic E were observed
before local dawn at mid to high latitudes. At high latitudes
the F-layer was weak during the long night time hours offering
poor ionospheric support.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 6 Near predicted monthly values
29 May 6 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 9 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were close to predicted monthly values
throughout the UT day. Cases of strong sporadic E were observed
before local dawn in far southern Australian regions. In Antarctic
Australian regions the F-layer was weak during the long night
time hours offering poor ionospheric support.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 663 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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