[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Ongoing chance of a C class flare. New region 956 located 
at N02 E61. The solar wind speed has remained around 310 km/s 
over the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has fluctuated mostly between +/-2 nT. A slow 
moving CME was observed at 1430 UT originating from the north-east 
limb and may be associated with region 956. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111121
      Darwin               4   21111121
      Townsville           7   12221232
      Learmonth            3   11110220
      Camden               2   10110120
      Canberra             2   00110120
      Hobart               2   10011120
      Casey(Ant)           3   11111121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1210 1011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May     5    Quiet 
16 May     5    Quiet 
17 May     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: The CME mentioned above is not likely to be geo-effective. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
16 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
17 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

COMMENT: Frequencies should be near predicted monthly values. 
Spread F likely at all latitudes during night hours and may
degrade communications. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 May    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May    10    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
16 May    10    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
17 May    10    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 

COMMENT: Night time spread F was observed at all latitudes.
Spread F is likely to continue to be present at night and may
degrade communications. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    13200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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