[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 16 09:30:21 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: Low
Flares: C1/SF at 1537 UT
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 82/23 83/24
COMMENT: The solar wind speed has increased to around 360 km/s
over the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the of the interplanetary
magnetic field has fluctuated between +/-5 nT. Region 956 (N02
E48) has increased in area and magnetic complexity and produced the
C1 flare. At 1853 UT a CME was observed off the north-east limb. It
is uncertain whether this CME is associated with region 956.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 4 12121111
Darwin 4 12121111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 12231111
Camden 1 01111001
Canberra 2 01122000
Hobart 3 12122100
Casey(Ant) 4 12221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 0000 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 5 Quiet
17 May 5 Quiet
18 May 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled with a possible isolated
active period.
COMMENT: The coronal hole mentioned above may increase activity
on the 18th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
17 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Frequencies should be near predicted monthly values
although there may be depressions at lower latitudes. Spread
F likely at all latitudes during night hours and may degrade
communications.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions up
to 40% observed at times, mostly around 12-16 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
around noon.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 10 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
17 May 10 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
18 May 10 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
COMMENT: Night time spread F was observed at all latitudes. Spread
F is likely to continue to be present at night and may degrade
communications.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 11400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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