[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 May             15 May             16 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Chance of a C class flare. The solar wind speed is
currently about 300 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic fluctuated between +/-2 nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12110111
      Darwin               3   22010111
      Townsville           5   12211122
      Learmonth            2   12120000
      Camden               1   11010001
      Canberra             2   01300001
      Hobart               1   01111100
      Casey(Ant)           3   12111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 May     5    Quiet 
15 May     5    Quiet 
16 May     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
15 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
16 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

COMMENT: Frequencies should be near predicted monthly values. 
Spread F likely at all latitudes during night hours and may
degrade communications. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 May    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted to enhanced by 35%.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 May    10    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
15 May    10    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
16 May    10    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 

COMMENT: Spread F may degrade night time communications. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    47700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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