[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 13 09:06:52 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: AR955 is the only spot group visible and over the 
last 24hrs the spots have diminished 50% in area. Over this same 
period the solar wind decreased from 400 to 340 km/s and will 
most likely remain around this level for the next several days. 
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic fluctuated between 
+/-2 nT, so coupling with the geomagnetic field should have been 
weak. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111111
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville           6   22221122
      Learmonth            4   22220101
      Camden               1   11000001
      Canberra             1   11000001
      Hobart               2   11011101
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May     2    Quiet 
14 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 
the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly near predicted monthly 
values over the next few days with possible mild depressions 
at low latitudes today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 May    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May    10    near predicted monthly values 
14 May    10    near predicted monthly values 
15 May    10    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect near normal HF conditions to prevail over the 
next several days with mild depressions possible in the equatorial 
region today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    45300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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