[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 9 09:44:14 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar region 953 has rotated off the visible disk. Solar
wind speeds remained elevated over the past 24 hours, averaging
around 600 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to decline slowly
over 9-10 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 11 23333222
Darwin 10 23323222
Townsville 11 23323322
Learmonth 16 23434332
Camden 10 23333221
Canberra 10 23333221
Hobart 11 23333321
Casey(Ant) 14 34333232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Camden 68 (Active)
Canberra 76 (Active)
Hobart 112 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 18 1132 3544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible isolated
active periods.
10 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
11 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled levels were observed during 8 May with
isolated active periods at high latitudes. Isolated active periods
are again possible for 9 May, otherwise mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Slight depressions are possible at times over the next
few days due to slightly increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed up
to 15% at times during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
10 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
11 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed up to 15% at times during local
day for southern regions only for 8 May, otherwise MUFs were
mostly near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced.
MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values over the
next few days with the chance of slight depressions at times
due to slightly increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 72400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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