[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 9 09:44:14 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar region 953 has rotated off the visible disk. Solar 
wind speeds remained elevated over the past 24 hours, averaging 
around 600 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to decline slowly 
over 9-10 May. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23333222
      Darwin              10   23323222
      Townsville          11   23323322
      Learmonth           16   23434332
      Camden              10   23333221
      Canberra            10   23333221
      Hobart              11   23333321
      Casey(Ant)          14   34333232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Camden              68   (Active)
      Canberra            76   (Active)
      Hobart             112   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   1132 3544     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible isolated 
                active periods. 
10 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
11 May     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled levels were observed during 8 May with 
isolated active periods at high latitudes. Isolated active periods 
are again possible for 9 May, otherwise mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected for the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Slight depressions are possible at times over the next 
few days due to slightly increased geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 May    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed up
      to 15% at times during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
10 May    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
11 May    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed up to 15% at times during local 
day for southern regions only for 8 May, otherwise MUFs were 
mostly near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced. 
MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values over the 
next few days with the chance of slight depressions at times 
due to slightly increased geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    72400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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