[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 8 09:46:52 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN   ION: *YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 May             09 May             10 May
Activity     Low                Low                Very low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              70/5               70/5
COMMENT: C-class flares activity is still possible from region 
953. A shock in all parameters of the solar wind was observed 
at 0742UT on 7 May suggesting the glancing impact of the CME 
of 3 May and/or a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream. 
Solar wind speeds have increased steadily since the shock and 
are presently approximately 600 km/s. Elevated solar wind speeds 
are expected to persist for 8 May and decrease slowly 9-10 May. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0724UT 
on 07 May. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 07 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   11223423
      Darwin              11   21223423
      Townsville          11   22223423
      Learmonth           16   11324533
      Camden               9   11223422
      Canberra             9   00223423
      Hobart              11   11213433
      Casey(Ant)          12   22332333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              2   1000 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 May    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible isolated 
                active periods. 
09 May    10    Quiet to unsettled 
10 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: An isolated active period was observed 15-18UT due to 
a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream and/or the glancing 
impact of the CME of 3 May. Further isolated active periods are 
possible for 8 May with mostly unsettled to quiet conditions 
expected for 9-10 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values 
over the next few days with the very small chance of SWFs for 
8-9 May. Slight depressions are possible at times over the next 
few days due to slightly increased geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 May    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 May     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
09 May     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
10 May     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values 
over the next few days with the very small chance of SWFs for 
8-9 May. Slight depressions are possible at times over the next 
few days due to slightly increased geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 275 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list