[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 7 09:42:49 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 70/5
COMMENT: C-class flares activity is still possible from region
953. Solar wind speeds have continued to be low, remaining below
300 km/s over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds may become
mildly elevated during 7 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11101011
Darwin 3 21111012
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 1 10100002
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 0 10001000
Casey(Ant) 2 11101111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 3 1011 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible isolated
active periods.
08 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
09 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 5 May and is
current for interval 6-7 May. Geomagnetic activity may increase
slightly during 7 May. Isolated active periods are possible with
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions for 8-9 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values
over the next few days with the very small chance of SWFs for
7-8 May. Slight depressions are possible at times due to an
anticipated slight increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% at times, otherwise
mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
08 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
09 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values
over the next few days with the very small chance of SWFs for
7-8 May. Slight depressions are possible at times due to an
anticipated slight increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 288 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 11900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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