[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 6 09:29:46 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Further C-class flares are possible from region 953.
Solar wind speeds have remained below 300 km/s over the past
24 hours. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase during 6
May as a coronal hole rotates into a geoffective position. A
westward directed CME observed during 3 May, most likely associated
with the C-class flare activity observed late in the UT day of
2 May, has the small chance of a glancing impact during 6 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville 5 12221112
Learmonth 2 11210000
Camden 1 00110001
Canberra 0 00010000
Hobart 0 10010000
Casey(Ant) 3 12211100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1001 0010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 18 Mostly unsettled with possible active periods.
07 May 15 Mostly unsettled with possible active periods.
08 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 5 May and is
current for interval 6-7 May. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to increase 6 May due a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream
and/or the possible glancing impact of a CME. Active periods
are expected to persist into 7 May with mostly unsettled to quiet
conditions for 8 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values
over the next few days with the small chance of further SWFs.
Slight depressions are possible at times from 6 May due to an
anticipated mild increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
07 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
08 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values
over the next few days with the small chance of further SWFs.
Slight depressions are possible at times from 6 May due to an
anticipated mild increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 19000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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