[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 10 09:39:46 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Emerging flux region noted at S09E33, 10 spots and growing.
The solar wind is at aproximately 510 km/s and steadily declining
to normal levels. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuated between -2/+4 nT over the last 24 hours. A CME
was noted on the LASCO images, commencing at around 0618 UT 9 May,
however appears to be on the far-side.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 6 23212111
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 7 22322211
Camden 5 13211111
Canberra 5 13212111
Hobart 6 33211111
Casey(Ant) 9 33322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 51 (Unsettled)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 2442 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 6 Quiet
11 May 4 Quiet
12 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next few
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal
12 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly near predicted monthly
values over the next few days with the chance of slight depressions
during local day, 10 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 May 10 near predicted monthly values
12 May 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values
over the next few days with the chance of slight depressions
during local day, 10 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 607 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 221000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list