[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 15 10:42:50 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind 
speeds have remained elevated over the past 24 hours at approximately 
600-700 km/s due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream. The 
speed has been declining in the last 12 hours and should be below 
600km/s in the early hours of 15th March UT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222211
      Darwin               0   00000000
      Townsville           9   23223222
      Learmonth           11   32------
      Camden               8   23223211
      Canberra             9   23233211
      Hobart               9   23233212
      Casey(Ant)           9   3--32222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              62   (Active)
      Canberra            58   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             26   5543 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Mar     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at predominantly 
quiet to unsettled levels for 15 March, trending to quiet as 
solar wind speed decreases with westward passage of the coronal 
hole. IMF Bz has fluctuated near zero so high latitudes are only 
moderately disturbed. Conditions should be mostly quiet for 16-17 
March. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Fair           Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed during Australian daylight 
hours during 14 March at mid latitudes. Nightime HF conditions 
at mid-latitudes were mostly near normal in the second half of 
the UT day, probably due to lower geomagentic activity from decreasing
solar wind speed. Equatorial latitudes showed daytime enhancements. 
Polar latitudes were slightly disturbed from global geomagnetic 
activity increase. HF conditions should be returning to normal 
for 15 March with although recovery may be slow due to the absence 
of sunspots and ionising flux. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Mar     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar     8    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
16 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Mar    12    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressions of up to 15% were observed at times during 
14 March, otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF 
conditions should be returning to normal for 15 March with the 
continuing chance of 5-15% depressions if recovery is slow due 
to lack of sunspot activity or solar wind declines less quickly 
than expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 671 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   240000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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