[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 14 10:49:40 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION:GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Solar
wind speeds have remained elevated over the past 24 hours at
approximately 600-700 km/s due to a coronal hole wind stream.
Elevated solar wind speeds are expected to continue for at least
24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 18 43433333
Darwin - --------
Townsville 17 43433332
Learmonth 22 53434333
Camden 18 43433333
Canberra 18 43443332
Hobart 19 43443333
Casey(Ant) 19 44433333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 73 (Active)
Canberra 77 (Active)
Hobart 92 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 1102 4233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 15 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
15 Mar 12 Unsettled
16 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at predominantly
quiet to unsettled levels for 14 March. Isolated active periods
and minor storm levels at high latitudes are also possible due
to a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream. Conditions should
be mostly quiet to unsettled for 15-16 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times during 13 March,
otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF conditions
should be mostly normal for 14 March with the continuing chance
of mild depressions at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 0 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions of up to 15% were observed at times during
13 March, otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF
conditions should be mostly normal for 14 March with the continuing
chance of 5-15% depressions at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 501 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 166000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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