[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 16 09:52:11 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind
speeds have remained elevated over the past 24 hours due to a
recurrent coronal hole wind stream. The speed has been declining
less rapidly than expected but fell below 600km/s around 16UT.
IMF Bz has been fluctuating widely but averaged slightly northward
so merging was minimal.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 12232212
Darwin 0 00000000
Townsville 10 22333222
Learmonth - --------
Camden 9 12333212
Canberra 9 12333212
Hobart 9 12333222
Casey(Ant) 11 3--32223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Camden 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3212 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar 4 Quiet
18 Mar 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled
for 16 March, trending to quiet as solar wind speed decreases
with westward passage of the coronal hole. The decrease has been
slower than expected. IMF Bz has fluctuated widely and averaged
slightly northwards so merging has been weak and not contributed
to global activity. Conditions should be mostly quiet for 17-18
March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed during nightime hours
during 15 March UT day at equatorial latitudes. Mid- latitudes
looked to be returning to normal. Polar latitudes were only slightly
disturbed from global geomagnetic activity and possibly the widely
fluctuating IMF Bz. HF conditions should be returning to normal
for 15 March with although recovery may be slow due to the absence
of sunspots and ionising flux. Equatorial regions recovery may
lag mid-latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue showed an unusual daytime depression 01-05UT
which was local.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 6 about 5% below predicted monthly values
17 Mar 8 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly near normal for mid-latitudes
with some slight depressions in the local evening. Equatorial
latitudes showed MUF depressions of up to 20% during evening
and local night, apparently a delayed reaction to the recent
geogmetic activity. Conditions should be returning to normal
for 15 March at mid latitudes with the continuing chance of equatorial
latitude depressions in MUF. Recovery is slow due to lack of
sunspot activity and the solar wind declining less quickly than
expected. Polar latitudes remain slightly disturbed and MUFs
are volatile as usual.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 666 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 197000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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