[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 24 09:50:06 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is spotless. Solar activity is
expected to be very low for the next few days. Solar wind speeds
remained elevated during the past 24 hours as the result of a
coronal hole solar wind stream, ranging between approximately
500-580 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to decline slowly
over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22321111
Darwin 4 22211111
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth 6 22311122
Camden 5 22311111
Canberra 7 22421110
Hobart 7 22421111
Casey(Ant) 8 33221222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 66 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 4344 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: An isolated active period was observed at some mid latitude
stations with some minor storm levels observed at high latitudes,
otherwise mostly quiet to unsettled levels were observed over
the Australian region. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for the Australian region for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jun 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Degraded conditions observed at times due to
Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F conditions and/or
a weak winter solar mininum ionosphere.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
25 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
26 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F conditions were observed
at times at most Aus/NZ stations during the past 24 hours. These
conditions may have degraded communications, otherwise mostly
normal conditions were observed for the Aus/NZ region. A weak
winter solar minimum ionosphere also degraded conditions for
high latitudes at times. Slight depressions are possible at times
over the next few days otherwise mostly normal conditions are
expected. Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F conditions may degrade
communications at times during 24 June. A weak winter solar
minimum ionosphere may also degrade conditions for high
latitudes at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 532 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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