[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 25 09:44:52 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is spotless. Solar activity is
expected to be very low for the next few days. Solar wind speeds
declined slowly over the past 24 hours and are presently approximately
420 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline
slowly over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22222221
Darwin 5 22121221
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22222321
Camden 5 12221211
Canberra 5 22221220
Hobart 6 13-22210
Casey(Ant) 9 33222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 48 (Unsettled)
Hobart 76 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 3331 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 6 Quiet
26 Jun 5 Quiet
27 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the Australian
region for the next few days as the coronal hole solar wind stream
that has been affecting geomagnetic activity over the past few
days abates.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 10% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values to depressed
up to 15% at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
26 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
27 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F conditions were observed
at times at most Aus/NZ stations during the past 24 hours. These
conditions may have degraded communications, otherwise mostly
normal conditions were observed for the Aus/NZ region. A weak
winter solar minimum ionosphere also degraded conditions for
high latitudes at times. Slight depressions are possible at times
over the next few days otherwise mostly normal conditions are
expected. Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F conditions may degrade
communications at times during 25 June. A weak winter solar
minimum ionosphere may also degrade conditions for high
latitudes at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 554 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 153000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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