[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 23 09:50:20 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is spotless. Solar activity is
expected to be very low for the next few days. Solar wind speeds
remained elevated during the past 24 hours as the result of a
coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds peaked around
580 km/s and have since declined slowly. Solar wind speeds are
expected to continue to decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 12 33342222
Darwin 8 22241122
Townsville 13 33342223
Learmonth 16 33352223
Camden 12 33342222
Canberra 11 -3342122
Hobart 12 33342222
Casey(Ant) 12 33242223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 77 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 14 1233 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of isloated active levels.
24 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: An isolated active period was observed during 22 June
as the result of a recurrent coronal hole solar wind stream.
Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next
few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Degraded conditions observed at times due to
Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F conditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
24 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
25 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F conditions were observed
at times at most Aus/NZ regions during the past 24 hours. These
conditions may have degraded communications. Slight depressions
are possible at times over the next few days otherwise mostly
normal conditions are expected. Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F conditions
may degrade communications at times during 23 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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