[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 22 09:52:32 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is spotless. Solar activity is
expected to be very low for the next few days. Solar wind parameters
indicate the Earth is under the influence of the anticipated
recurrent coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds have
increased and are presently around 500 km/s. Solar wind speeds
are expected to remain mildly elevated for the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A K
Australian Region 13 12244332
Darwin 12 22243331
Townsville 15 22244333
Learmonth 20 22255333
Camden 10 11134322
Canberra 11 01134333
Hobart 9 01134322
Casey(Ant) 8 12233222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1101 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jun 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of isloated active periods.
23 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
24 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Active periods were observed during the past 24 hours
due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole solar wind stream.
Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next
two days with the small chance of isolated active periods for
22 June. Mostly quiet levels are expected for 24 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jun 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
23 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
24 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed for northern Australian
to equatorial regions with mostly normal conditions observed
at other Aus/NZ regions for 21 June. Mild depressions are again
possible for extreme northern Australian regions for 22 June,
otherwise mostly normal conditions are expected for Aus/NZ regions
for the next few days. Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F conditions
were observed at most Aus/NZ regions apart from central Australian
regions during the past 24 hours. These conditions may have degraded
communications.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 72000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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