[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 21 09:51:07 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is spotless. Solar activity is
expected to be very low for the next few days. Solar wind speeds
declined slowly over the past 24 hours from approximately 460
km/s to 380 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase
slightly over the next 24 hours due to a recurrent coronal hole
solar wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 21221100
Darwin 4 22121111
Townsville 5 22222111
Learmonth 2 21211000
Camden 2 11220000
Canberra 2 11220000
Hobart 2 10121-00
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2322 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled with isloated active
periods possible.
22 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled
23 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The effect of a recurrent coronal hole may raise the
geomagnetic activity to unsettled to active levels on 21 June,
otherwise conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled
for the next few day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
22 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
23 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed for equatorial to northern
Australian regions with mostly normal conditions observed at
other regions for 20 June. Mild depressions are again possible
for extreme northern Australian regions for 21-22 June, otherwise
mostly normal conditions are expected for Aus/NZ regions for
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 77800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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