[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 20 09:31:48 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jun             21 Jun             22 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well. 
Solar wind speed remained between 430 and 460 km/s for 
most part of the UT day today. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed fluctuations 
between +/- 4 nT almost the whole day today. The effect of 
another recurrent coronal hole may result in moderate to 
significant strengthning of the solar wind stream from 20 
to 22 June. Solar activity is expected to remain at very 
low levels for the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222111
      Darwin               5   22222111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   22222210
      Camden               4   12221101
      Canberra             4   12222100
      Hobart               3   11222100
      Casey(Ant)           5   22221211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              45   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1112 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jun    12    Unsettled to active 
21 Jun    18    Active 
22 Jun    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet levels 
on 19 June. The effect of a recurrent coronal hole may raise 
the geomagnetic activity to unsettled to active levels on 20 
and 22 June. Mostly active periods are expected on 21 June. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
21 Jun      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair          
22 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions 
and depressions in MUFs may be observed on low and mid 
latitude circuits from 20 to 22 June. Moderate to significant 
degradations may be expected for high latitude locations 
from 20 to 22 June due to the possibility of enhancement 
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Jun     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day with periods of
      degradations,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of significant degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jun     8    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
21 Jun     4    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%. 
22 Jun     4    near predicted monthly values/depressed 05 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions 
and depressions in MUFs may be observed across Aus/NZ regions 
for the next three days due to the possibility of enhancements 
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 475 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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