[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 28 09:43:46 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jul             29 Jul             30 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
With no active regions currently on the disk, solar activity 
is expected to remain very low for the next few days. Solar wind 
velocity declined from a maximum of 480km/s to be ~400km/s at 
the time of this report. Bz, the north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field decreased in magnitude and fluctuated 
between +/-5nT between 0000UT and 0800UT followed by a notable 
southward period between 0800UT and 1400UT. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222101
      Darwin               5   22122111
      Townsville           7   23222212
      Learmonth            6   23222101
      Camden               4   22122001
      Canberra             6   22223101
      Hobart               6   22223101
      Casey(Ant)           7   33222111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              42   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   0001 1433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Jul     6    Quiet 
30 Jul     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected over the next 
24 hours as solar wind parameters begin to abate. Quiet conditions 
expected on 29Jul-30Jul. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
29 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid 
latitudes over the last 24 hours. Disturbed conditions for high 
latitudes. Similar conditions expected over the next 24 hours, 
with possible MUF depressions ~20% for mid to high latitudes. 
Mostly normal conditions expected for 29Jul-30Jul. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jul    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 115% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jul    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
29 Jul    10    near predicted monthly values 
30 Jul    10    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions observed for both Northern 
AUS/Equatorial regions and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Enhanced 
periods during local evening for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Enhanced 
periods along with disturbed conditions observed for Antarctic 
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours 
with possible MUF depressions of 20% during local day for Northern 
AUS/Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 305 km/sec  Density:   10.9 p/cc  Temp:    24500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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