[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 29 09:36:48 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
New region 965 was the source of a B class event. Solar activity
is expected to remain very low for the next few days. Solar wind
velocity declined from a maximum of 390km/s to be 370km/s at
the time of this report. Bz, the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field decreased in magnitude and fluctuated
between +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 4 22110121
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 1 11110001
Hobart 3 11121111
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3322 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 6 Quiet
30 Jul 4 Quiet
31 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with some depressed periods
observed for low to mid latitudes over the last 24 hours. Disturbed
conditions for high latitudes. Similar conditions expected over
the next 2 days with possible MUF depressions ~20% for mid to
high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 75% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions observed Southern AUS/NZ regions
with notable daytime depressions for Northern AUS/regions. Disturbed
conditions observed for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal conditions
expected for the next 2 days with possible MUF depressions of
20% during local day for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 78100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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