[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 27 09:44:42 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
With no active regions currently on the disk, solar activity
is expected to remain very low for the next few days. Solar wind
velocity began to increase at 1050UT from 300km/s to be ~460km/s
at the time of this report. Bz, the north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field increased in magnitude to fluctuate
between +/-10nT for the later half of the UT day. The rise in
solar wind paramters is due to a the onset of a high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 11111322
Darwin 6 21112322
Townsville 8 22212332
Learmonth 6 12112322
Camden 4 11001321
Canberra 4 00001322
Hobart 5 21101322
Casey(Ant) 4 11111222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 12 Unsettled
28 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours as the earth entered a high speed solar wind stream
from the now geoeffective coronal hole. Predominently Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions expected over the next 24 hours with possible
Active periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for
28Jul-29Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for low latitudes and disturbed
conditions for high latitudes. Mostly normal conditions observed
for mid latitudes. Similar conditions expected for low latitudes
over the next 2 days with MUF depressions ~20% expected for mid
to high latitudes due to increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 315% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed after local dawn for both
Northern AUS/Equatorial regions and Southern AUS/NZ regions,
otherwise mostly normal ionospheric support. Enhanced periods
along with disturbed conditions observed for Antarctic regions.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days with possible
MUF depressions of 20% for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions
due to an increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 18200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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