[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 26 09:49:03 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jul             27 Jul             28 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
With no active regions currently on the disk, solar activity 
is expected to remain very low for the next few days. Solar wind 
speed continued to decline from 320km/s to be 300km/s at the 
time of this report. A recurrent coronal hole is expected bring 
increased solar wind parameters in the next 24 hours. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111001
      Darwin               4   22111111
      Townsville           6   22222112
      Learmonth            2   01121001
      Camden               0   01000000
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               1   10101000
      Casey(Ant)           3   11111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Jul     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions expected over the next 
2 days with possible isolated Active periods due to a recurrent 
coronal hole moving into geoeffective position. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for low latitudes and enhancements
for mid latitudes. Disturbed conditions for high latitudes. Similar 
conditions expected for the next 2 days with possible disturbed 
periods for mid to high latitudes due to an increase in geomagnetic 
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jul     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 60% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jul     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
27 Jul     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
28 Jul     5    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed again during local day 
for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions and enhanced conditions during 
local night for Southern Aus/NZ regions. Enhancements as well 
as disturbed conditions observed for Antarctic regions. These 
conditions are expected to continue for the next 2 days with 
possible disturbed periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions due to 
anticipated increase in geomagnetic activty. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    14100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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