[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 25 09:40:47 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
With no active regions currently on the disk, solar activity
is expected to remain very low for the next few days. Solar wind
speed declined from 380km/s to be 320km/s at the time of this
report. A recurrent coronal hole is expected bring increased
solar wind parameters on 26th July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 5 12222112
Learmonth 2 11102100
Camden 1 11100001
Canberra 1 11100101
Hobart 2 11101101
Casey(Ant) 3 11111211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1111 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 5 Quiet
26 Jul 11 Unsettled
27 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected until 26th July when
a recurrent coronal hole may increase activity levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for low to mid
latitudes with some isolated depressed periods. Disturbed
conditions expected for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 60% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed during local day for Northern
Aus regions and enhanced conditions during local night for Southern
Aus/NZ regions. Disturbed conditions observed for Antarctic regions
during the later half of the UT day. Otherwise mostly normal
HF conditions for all regions over the last 24 hours. Similar
conditions are expected over the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 47700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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