[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 24 09:49:19 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
With no active regions currently on the disk, solar activity
is expected to remain very low for the next few days. Solar wind
speed was relatively unchanged over the UT day, and is currently
at 390km/s at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between
+/-3nT. A equatorial positioned coronal hole is expected to be
in geoeffective position in the next 48 hours bringing elevated
solar wind paramters.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 11121212
Camden 2 01111111
Canberra 1 10011001
Hobart 4 10112103
Casey(Ant) 3 12111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1210 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 5 Quiet
25 Jul 5 Quiet
26 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 48 hours,
after which a equatorial positioned coronal hole is expected
to be in geoeffective position and may increase activity levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: MUFs remained near predicted monthly values in the winter
hemisphere and were in general depressed in the summer hemisphere.
Continuing MUF depressions expected in the summer hemisphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 170% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed during local day for Northern
Aus/Equatorial regions with notable sporadic E. Enhanced conditions
during local night for Southern Aus/NZ regions. Disturbed conditions
observed for Antarctic regions. Otherwise mostly normal HF conditions
for all regions over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are
expected over the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 71100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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