[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 21 09:38:04 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue. The anticipated recurrent coronal hole
wind stream arrived in the early part of the UT day (20 Jul)
resulting in significantly enhanced solar wind density, IMF and
a steadily increasing solar wind speed. This recurrent coronal
hole appears to be in decline and is significantly smaller and
further from the solar equator than on previous rotations. On
its last rotation the solar wind speed reached a maximum of less
than 600km/s. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected for the
next 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 12344312
Darwin 12 22334312
Townsville 14 12344323
Learmonth 21 13355413
Camden 10 02244212
Canberra 12 01344321
Hobart 9 01243311
Casey(Ant) 10 12333213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 12 Unsettled
22 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The arrival of a recurrent coronal hole early in the
UT day (20 Jul) resulted in enhanced geomagnetic activity from
a strongly southward interplanetary magnetic field and a high
density region producing a period of Active geomagnetic conditions
stream has passed, although geomagnetic activity is expected
to contiue at Unsettled levels 21 Jul and Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jul. Isolated Active and Minor Storm conditions likely at
high latitudes 21 July particularly during local night-time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed at mid-high latitudes
20 Jul in response to enhanced geomagnetic activity. MUFs showed
a limited recovery in the winter hemisphere and were in general
depressed in the summer hemisphere. Degraded HF possible in the
next 24 hours due to continuing unsettled geomagnetic conditions,
particularly at higher latitudes. Some spread-F likely at higher
latitudes in the winter hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values / Enhanced by 15%.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 8 near predicted monthly values
22 Jul 4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Enhanced geomagnetic activity resulted in variable and
often degraded HF conditions in the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions
on 20 Jul. MUFs however showed a limited recovery over the last
few days of depressions due to a positive winter response to
Ap. The ionosphere in the Australian region is expected to be
much the same 21 Jul as elevated geomagnetic activity continues
at a lower level. Further depressions, up to 20%, are likely
from 22 July. Night time spread-F observed in the S.Aus/NZ region
is also expected to continue 21 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 18500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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